The situation on the USA-Iran line is becoming more and more heated overnight. How does the Bitcoin course and other assets react to all this? And what exactly is Donald Trump about? We will try to answer these questions in this text.
It started with the assassination of Iranian General Kasem Suleimani last Thursday. This was quickly admitted by the US authorities. Both sides started to knock on each other, but experts calmed down: there will be no war! Now the matter becomes not so obvious. Al Assad and the military airport in Irbil, two American bases, were fired at night from Tuesday to Wednesday Polish time with bullets that were fired from Iran.
“Everything is fine! Missiles were fired from Iran at two military bases in Iraq. The estimation of casualties and losses is now underway.”
– is now calming down on Twitter, Donald Trump. In fact, there’s nothing to be afraid of.
A political game before the election?
“The bubble economy of the United States is running out of fuel and the FED is working 3 shifts to keep everything afloat. Trump needs the stock market to propagate success and win the election. But he probably started to doubt that they’d be able to keep this party going until the election, so he made up his mind a war.”
– is a sentence by Jakub Mościcki from Trading Jam Session.
But does that make sense? Yes! Just look at the US history of the 1st half of the 20th century. American leaders have already used the war as a factor that can help the economy. To avoid looking far, just mention the situation from World War II. In addition to geopolitical and economic factors (fear that the Third Reich and its allies will take over Asia with its resources), joining the war was about strengthening the American market, which was still weakened by the crash of the late 1920s. The famous New Deal did not pass the test in the way it tries to present us today. Some believe that the US only came out of the way after the global conflict. And above all, they cut out all rivals – from the Axis countries to the “allied” Great Britain. This is a topic for another text. Let us return to our reality.
Does Trump now think like the US administration in the 1930s and 40s? It’s possible. He’s gonna war on the market and macroeconomic indicators to help him win the White House fight with the Democrats. If the “American boys” in the Middle East are about to start dying in an assassination, there is no way to count on pacific protests.
Bitcoin’s price in the context of war
So far, investors are resorting to safe assets: gold, silver and bonds. However, Bitcoin and other leading cryptocurrenciess are also gaining, which confirms to many observers that they are also increasingly demanding the role of safe haven.
Paradoxically, Trump is now helping the cryptocurrencies, which he considers to be the tools of criminals, to regain their 2017 glory. The optimistic scenario: Bitcoin will grow more and more as the threat of the US-Iran war grows.
There is also the other side of the coin. The new “holy” war on terror (because this is how the conflict will surely be baptized) may provoke the enemies of the cryptocurrencies to introduce strict regulations regarding digital currencies, because they “serve terrorists”… Needless to say, how will Bitcoin’s rate react to this.
Which of these scenarios will happen? So far, the attention of politicians and the media is focused on diplomacy and military action. Bitcoin, on the other hand, likes peace and quiet until a certain point…